Rebeca Grynspan leads first UN poll for next secretary-general

Rebeca Grynspan has emerged as the leading candidate to succeed António Guterres as the next United Nations secretary-general after the UN Security Council held its first informal indicative poll on July 30, opening the decisive phase of a selection process expected to continue through the coming months.

Grynspan, the current secretary-general of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development and a former vice president of Costa Rica, received 10 encouraging votes, one discouraging vote, and four no opinion votes from the Security Council’s 15 members, according to diplomatic sources cited by Reuters and reporting from PassBlue.

Guyana’s Permanent Representative Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett ranked second with nine encouraging votes, two discouraging votes, and four no opinion votes. Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, placed third with seven encouraging votes, two discouraging votes, and six no opinion votes, a result widely viewed as stronger than expected.

Former Chilean president Michelle Bachelet finished fourth with six encouraging votes. Former Senegalese president Macky Sall ranked fifth, followed by Ecuador’s María Fernanda Espinosa in sixth place. Uganda’s Olara Otunnu received the weakest level of support among the seven candidates.

The indicative poll is not binding and serves as the first stage in narrowing the field before the Security Council recommends a single candidate to the UN General Assembly. Security Council President Zénon Mukongo Ngay confirmed that the vote had taken place but declined to release official results, saying candidates would be informed through the governments that nominated them. A second informal poll is expected during Denmark’s presidency of the Council in August.

All members used identical ballots in the first round, making it impossible to determine whether any of the Council’s five permanent members, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, or the United States, opposed a specific candidate. Future rounds will use different colored ballots for permanent members, making any potential vetoes visible.

US Ambassador Mike Waltz said he expected the Security Council to reach conclusions in the coming months. He said Washington is seeking a secretary-general who will reform the organization and make it more efficient and better aligned with its mission.

Past selection processes suggest that several additional rounds of voting could take place through September or October before the Council recommends a consensus candidate to the 193-member General Assembly for formal appointment.

The United Nations has never elected a woman as secretary-general during its 80-year history. Both the United States and China have publicly expressed support for the election of a woman to the post. Five of the seven declared candidates come from Latin America and the Caribbean, the region widely viewed as next in the organization’s informal geographic rotation. Additional candidates may still enter the race.