2027 finance bill: economist Mohamed Jadri puts social effort at over 62 billion dirhams

Economist Mohamed Jadri estimated in an analysis published Tuesday that the 2027 finance bill carries a combined social and financial effort of more than 62 billion dirhams.

According to his reading, that sum covers wider direct social support, lower electricity bills, a revised income tax scale, a higher minimum pension and a doubling of the widow’s pension so that it reaches 100% of the deceased spouse’s pension.

Total state expenditure, he noted, would climb by more than 64 billion dirhams, pushing it past 825 billion dirhams in 2027.

Jadri traced the fiscal room behind these commitments mainly to an expected rise of about 60 billion dirhams in tax revenue. He broke that figure down into 31 billion dirhams from corporate tax, 18 billion from value-added tax, 7 billion from income tax and 4 billion from registration and stamp duties.

In strict accounting terms, he cautioned, none of these taxes can be said to fund a specific social measure directly, since state resources are pooled together. Economically, though, he argued that the growth in tax receipts remains one of the main sources of the margin that allows the state to take on these new obligations.

He also raised the question of where the extra revenue actually comes from:

“Is this increase in resources mainly the result of strong economic growth, a broader tax base and the fight against evasion and fraud? Or does it also reflect a heavier tax burden on businesses, consumption and income?”

A social state, Jadri said, should be judged not only by how much it spends but by the quality and fairness of its funding sources, and by its ability to sustain them without squeezing investment or household purchasing power.