Global warming is set to exceed 1.5\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) warns in its Emissions Gap Report 2026, released in Nairobi on Wednesday, 21 October. To bring temperatures back below that threshold by the end of the century, global greenhouse gas emissions would have to fall 18 percent by 2030 and 45 percent by 2035, measured against 2025 levels.<\/p>\n
Titled “The Point of Return”, the report examines a “lowest possible” overshoot scenario in which peak warming is held to 1.7-1.8\u00b0C around mid-century before temperatures return to 1.5\u00b0C or below by 2100, with roughly a 50 percent chance. That pathway requires a 69 percent cut in emissions by 2040.<\/p>\n
Full delivery of the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) submitted under the Paris Agreement would cut emissions by only 5-8 percent by 2030 and 11-15 percent by 2035, UNEP finds. That would leave the world heading for 2.6\u00b0C of warming this century, or 2.8\u00b0C if current policies simply continue.<\/p>\n
The projections are worse than last year’s, the report says, because of the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement and revised estimates of historical emissions; new NDCs filed since then have made a negligible difference. Even the most optimistic case, combining all NDCs with announced net-zero targets, would limit warming only to 2.1\u00b0C.<\/p>\n
\n“Overshoot is not surrender. We can still keep it as small and as short as possible \u2013 and bring temperatures back below 1.5 degrees by the end of the century,” UN Secretary-General Ant\u00f3nio Guterres said in a message on the report.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
Every five years of CO2 emissions at current levels pushes peak warming up by around 0.1\u00b0C, UNEP notes. The lowest-overshoot pathway would also require removing roughly 320 gigatonnes of CO2 from the atmosphere and storing it permanently over the course of the century, equivalent to about eight years of global emissions at 2024 levels.<\/p>\n
Renewables growing faster than expected<\/h2>\n
The report also records progress. Since the Paris Agreement was adopted, renewable electricity capacity has grown three times faster than anticipated and solar photovoltaic capacity seven times faster. A review of more than 220 climate policies finds that measures in the electricity sector cut emissions by an average of 9 percent, while economic instruments such as carbon markets and carbon taxes achieved reductions of 5-13 percent.<\/p>\n
UNEP proposes extending the goals of the first Global Stocktake to 2035 and 2040: at least tripling renewable capacity by 2035 compared with 2025, cutting the share of coal in energy supply by at least 55 percent, reducing methane emissions by at least 25 percent over the same period, and effectively phasing out coal-fired electricity by 2040.<\/p>\n
“Every additional fraction of a degree and additional year of warming above 1.5\u00b0C increases climate impacts and risks,” said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen, who called a return to the threshold by the end of the century “possible” if governments put in place policies that deliver fast, deep and sustained cuts.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
UNEP warns that global warming will overshoot 1.5\u00b0C and sets out the path back: emissions down 18% by 2030 and 45% by 2035 compared with 2025, in its Emissions Gap Report 2026.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":6199,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,11],"tags":[5617,5615,5614,5612],"class_list":["post-6200","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-environment","category-international-news","tag-antonio-guterres-onu","tag-inger-andersen","tag-accord-de-paris","tag-pnue"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t