Oil prices rose for a fourth consecutive session on Wednesday, with Brent crude moving above $91 a barrel as tensions between the United States and Iran remained unresolved around the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, the refining margin for diesel reached more than $100 a barrel for the first time, setting a new record amid a global shortage of refining capacity.<\/p>\n
The latest increase followed comments by US President Donald Trump on Tuesday that no negotiations with Iran were taking place or planned. Trump also said the Strait of Hormuz remained open. Tehran rejected that claim. Iranian chief negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said the strait would remain closed until Washington met the conditions of an interim agreement signed in June. That agreement expired on Monday.<\/p>\n
An Iranian senior official told Reuters that Tehran had moved to what he described as a fully offensive military posture, adding to uncertainty over the future of maritime traffic through the strategic waterway.<\/p>\n
Commercial traffic through Hormuz remains far below pre-war levels. Freight data showed that only six merchant vessels crossed the strait on Monday.<\/p>\n
According to Kpler, oil flows through the waterway had averaged about 18 million barrels per day before the war. Since the beginning of August, they have fallen to about 2 million barrels per day.<\/p>\n
Gulf producers are adjusting their export strategies. Saudi Aramco has resumed crude loadings inside the strait and is offering cargoes through ship-to-ship transfers near Fujairah.<\/p>\n
Iraq has also approved new mechanisms to export crude through alternative routes from September 1. Meanwhile, two major Chinese shipping companies have stopped sending tankers through Hormuz and are instead collecting their cargoes outside the Gulf.<\/p>\n
The United Arab Emirates also appears to have developed a network of so-called ghost tankers that disable their tracking systems while passing through the strait. The practice has made it harder for traders to assess the exact scale of the disruption.<\/p>\n
Reuters columnist Ron Bousso described the situation as one in which traders know supplies have been disrupted but cannot determine the full extent of the interruption.<\/p>\n
US crude inventories also provided support for the upward move. Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed a slight decline in crude stocks last week, ahead of the official figures from the Energy Information Administration scheduled for Wednesday.<\/p>\n
The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to its lowest level in more than 40 years, limiting the country’s available stockpile buffer as supply risks persist.<\/p>\n
JPMorgan estimates that each additional month of disruption could add between $7 and $8 a barrel to Brent. The bank projects average monthly prices of around $114 a barrel if the disruption lasts three months.<\/p>\n
Goldman Sachs has warned that Brent could reach $120 if shipping disruptions continue. Its base scenario, however, assumes that tensions will gradually ease.<\/p>\n
The impact is already visible in US fuel prices. Gasoline stood at $4.06 per gallon on Monday, up 29 percent from a year earlier. The increase comes as Trump faces congressional elections in November after campaigning on lower energy costs.<\/p>\n
SEB analyst Bjarne Schieldrop said Iran could potentially halt oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz completely. The assessment highlights the central risk facing energy markets as traders monitor the confrontation between Washington and Tehran.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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